Absorbing Ambiguity: Richard Rumelt's Leadership Lesson

Richard Rumelt is one of the best strategy thinkers alive. His book Good Strategy Bad Strategy should be required reading for every leader.

One concept from Rumelt stuck with me more than others: absorbing ambiguity.

As Rumelt puts it: "A leader's most important job is absorbing a large part of the complexity and ambiguity of the situation and passing on to the organization a simpler problem—one that is solvable."

That line changed how I think about my role.

The concept

Leadership operates in uncertain conditions. Markets shift. Competitors surprise you. New information contradicts old assumptions. Ambiguity is constant.

Bad leaders pass that ambiguity down the chain. "The market is uncertain, so we need to be flexible." "We're not sure about the strategy yet, so keep doing what you're doing." "It depends on a lot of factors."

This creates paralysis. People don't know what to do. They wait for clarity that never comes. Or they make inconsistent decisions based on their own interpretations.

Good leaders absorb ambiguity. They take uncertain situations and produce clear direction. Even when the right answer isn't obvious. Even when they're not sure themselves.

What absorbing ambiguity looks like

A bad leader says: "The market is shifting. We need to be ready to pivot in any direction."

A good leader says: "The market is shifting. Here's what I think is happening. Here's our bet. Here's what we're going to do differently. We might be wrong, but this is our direction until we learn otherwise."

The information is the same. The ambiguity is the same. But one response creates clarity. The other creates confusion.

Absorbing ambiguity doesn't mean pretending you know things you don't. It means synthesizing uncertainty into actionable direction. You acknowledge what you don't know while still providing a path forward.

Why it matters

Teams need direction to function. Without it, people either freeze or scatter. Freezing means nothing happens. Scattering means effort is wasted on uncoordinated activity.

Direction creates coordination. When everyone understands the plan, they can work together. They can make independent decisions that point the same way. They can identify when something is off track.

The leader's job is to provide that direction. Not because they're smarter or have more information. Because that's the role. Someone needs to synthesize ambiguity into clarity. That someone is you.

The costs of not absorbing

When leaders don't absorb ambiguity, several things happen:

Decisions get delayed. People wait for more information. More certainty. A clearer signal. That signal never comes. The decision is made by default or not at all.

Inconsistent actions. Without clear direction, people make their own interpretations. Marketing bets on one future. Engineering bets on another. The company pulls in multiple directions.

Anxiety increases. Uncertainty creates stress. People want to know the plan. When there isn't one, they worry. Morale suffers. Good people leave for companies with clearer direction.

Blame replaces accountability. When things go wrong, everyone can point to the ambiguity. "We didn't have clear direction." "The strategy kept changing." No one owns the outcome because no one was given a clear outcome to own.

How to absorb ambiguity

Some practical approaches:

Make a call. When facing uncertainty, make a decision. State it clearly. Write it down. Communicate it broadly. You can change later if you learn new things. But for now, this is the direction.

State your assumptions. You don't know everything. That's fine. Be explicit about what you're assuming. "I'm assuming the market will grow 10% this year. If that changes, we'll revisit." This creates clarity while acknowledging uncertainty.

Define the experiment. If you genuinely don't know, define what would tell you. "We'll run this campaign for four weeks. If we see X, we continue. If we see Y, we pivot." This is still direction. It's just direction with built-in decision points.

Separate what you know from what you don't. Some things are uncertain. Others aren't. Be precise. "We don't know whether customers will pay this price. But we do know we need to hit 30% margins to be sustainable. Let's work backward from what we know."

Over-communicate. Even when you've made a call, people may not have heard it. Say it again. Write it down. Put it in the team deck. Reference it in every meeting. Clarity requires repetition. I sometimes joke that my real title is Chief Repeating Officer. I picked that up from someone else, but it stuck because it's true. By the time you're sick of saying something, your team is just starting to hear it.

The courage to be wrong

Absorbing ambiguity requires courage. You might be wrong. You're putting your judgment on the line. If things don't work out, you can't hide behind "well, it was uncertain."

That's the job. Leaders absorb risk as well as ambiguity. They make bets that might not pay off. They take responsibility for the outcome.

Some leaders avoid this by staying vague. They preserve optionality. They hedge. That protects them but hurts their team.

The best leaders I've worked with make clear calls and own the outcomes. They're wrong sometimes. But their teams execute better because they have direction.

A test

Think about the last strategic decision your team made. Was the direction clear afterward?

Could someone on the front lines explain what they should do differently?

If not, you may be passing ambiguity instead of absorbing it.

That's not a character flaw. It's a skill to develop. Start by noticing when you're hedging. Then practice making clearer calls, even when you're uncertain.